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Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By TheAdmiral
11/30/2021 2:56 am
Also worth remembering the data is from a dispersal season. I don't know how much play knowledge factors in to this.

I would also expect sacks to be high in a dispersal season as there will be some very weak OL's offering little protection to a QB learning the playbook.

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By setherick
11/30/2021 7:01 am
TheAdmiral wrote:
Also worth remembering the data is from a dispersal season. I don't know how much play knowledge factors in to this.

I would also expect sacks to be high in a dispersal season as there will be some very weak OL's offering little protection to a QB learning the playbook.



It doesn't matter. I could run the data for any league and it'd be the same. The hand wavy but this could be it arguments don't hold up. This version is just not fun. Or more to the point, the problems with this version were never addressed.

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By TheAdmiral
11/30/2021 8:31 am
setherick wrote:
TheAdmiral wrote:
Also worth remembering the data is from a dispersal season. I don't know how much play knowledge factors in to this.

I would also expect sacks to be high in a dispersal season as there will be some very weak OL's offering little protection to a QB learning the playbook.



It doesn't matter. I could run the data for any league and it'd be the same. The hand wavy but this could be it arguments don't hold up. This version is just not fun. Or more to the point, the problems with this version were never addressed.


Run the data and see? Sack rates in established leagues are at a similar level to the NFL. Sack rates in 4.5 were so low that DL play was irrelevant. DL are now impact players, which means OL has to be better.


A dispersal season is never going to give an accurate simulation of an NFL season for a multitude of reasons. The simplest of which is that the depth of quality of players isn't good enough so mismatches will be exaggerated.

For a 4.5 veteran it's a huge culture shock, in particular if they have never paid too much attention to the line of scrimmage. There's no point having a killer set of WR if you can't get the ball to them.

Control the line of scrimmage and control the game.

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By raidergreg69
11/30/2021 6:46 pm
I compiled a few league wide stats from USFL's first 3 weeks of 4.6. This is a 20+ year league and our passing stats are upside down.

https://mfnusflwfl.blogspot.com/2021/11/weeks-23-scoring-is-down-and-other.html

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By raidergreg69
11/30/2021 6:49 pm
In the USFL, our scoring is down about 9 points a game, yards per attempt has been a few yards less this season and now it's difficult for QB's to have a positive TD/INT ratio. Our sacks are way up, as is rushing, but overall this version is horrible.

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By setherick
11/30/2021 8:01 pm
raidergreg69 wrote:
In the USFL, our scoring is down about 9 points a game, yards per attempt has been a few yards less this season and now it's difficult for QB's to have a positive TD/INT ratio. Our sacks are way up, as is rushing, but overall this version is horrible.


I'm not running data for any other league yet, but here's some more data from Big Data.

This shows the thing that no one wants to talk about for version 4.6. It made all of the problems of 4.5 worse. This is the data for the Flat Zone against every set in the game. Notice now the Flat Zone completely shuts down passing plays?

Here's what's wrong with this scenario. The FZ is a GL/short yardage defense out of the 4-3. It brings both of the safeties up and into the box to cover the RBs or flexed to the WR3/4, and it leaves the CB1, CB2, and MLB on islands against the WR1, WR2, and TE. This defense should NEVER be this good, and it absolutely SHOULD NEVER be this good against the Medium and Long passes.

In real life, I would shred this defense by sending my fastest WRs and TE on deep corners, deep posts, deep crosses (deeper than the zone LB), and go routes all day long. Eventually, the CBs are going to make a mistake or the MLB is not going to be able to cover the TE. These plays exist in MFN right now, but they are completely unusable because you get sacked or the QB checks down to the RB who is going to get swarmed by the zone LBs and safety.

So what was an annoying defense in 4.5 has now become THE ULTIMATE PASS STOPPING DEFENSE. That is a GL/short yardage defense can now control passing for an entire game.



History lesson: for those that don't know, the FZ was incredibly vulnerable in 4.5 to plays that ran sprint outs with fast players like the 203 Slot Corner Short. And while it shut down the Hitch, it was as likely to give up a 75 yard throw against the Hitch as it was a 25 yard throw.
Last edited at 11/30/2021 8:06 pm

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By ArmoredGiraffe
11/30/2021 8:25 pm
I'm assuming Pass Yards Play is similar to the NFL's Yds/Att, and with this assumption every set/pass length combination, except 113 short, is under the current worst NFL team's Yds/Att which is the Jaguars at 6.0. A NFL team with a rookie QB(albeit one with the highest ceiling in my opinion) and a rookie head coach. If I'm assuming wrong with the Pass Yards Play is similar to the NFL's Yds/Att I apologize and will take this part down.

Similarly, only three set/pass length combinations are above the Jaguars in completion percentage and for reference the Jaguars are the worst in the NFL at 58.3%. People were upset people spammed the "broken" plays in 4.5 but it seems you have to spam only the 113 short, 212 medium, 221 medium(which only has 3 passes called so it's a small sample, and I'll be generous and include the 203 short to have a chance at finishing your season completing more passes than the worst statistical passing team in the NFL.
Last edited at 11/30/2021 8:33 pm

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By CrazyRazor
11/30/2021 9:10 pm
But, But, But everyone said this version was better! That we needed a change & this was it! (Sarcasm)

At least the punt block exploit is fixed. (Rolls eyes)

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By Smirt211
11/30/2021 9:23 pm
Quick comment: too bad 4343 quit....he could have made his 2 defensive play defense whittled down to 1 and won infinite titles. LOL (re: Man OLB Flat Zone)

Re: 4.6 Passing Issues by the Data

By setherick
11/30/2021 9:30 pm
CrazyRazor wrote:
But, But, But everyone said this version was better! That we needed a change & this was it! (Sarcasm)

At least the punt block exploit is fixed. (Rolls eyes)


The problem is this version could probably be better if sacks were addressed. But until there is some way to balance out offenses, it's just not going to be fun.